Cooler Summer and Drier Early Monsoon for 2012

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The forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon is a great challenge for meteorologist due to its complex behaviour over tropical region.

The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall forecast plays a vital role for Indian economy and planners and therefore couple of month prior information of coming summer monsoon is necessary.

Interested meteorologists all over the world are continuously working on the better forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon by using statistical methods and dynamical models. According to APEC Climate Centre, South Korea, the multi-model ensemble forecast is showing that April-May-June average temperature will be either normal or below normal over Indian mass land. The temperature over the Gangetic plain will be either normal or below normal by 10-20% in the month of April and May, therefore it can be expected that the summer would be relatively cooler and probability of no intense heat wave over the region of Utter Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh in the month of April and May in 2012.

Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) in June 2012 will be either normal or below normal over Indian land mass. There is a possibility that monsoon rainfall will be 20-40% below normal over northwest and central India while it would be normal over the rest of the country. The rice belt of Utter Pradesh and Bihar may receive normal or below normal by 10% of monsoon rainfall in June 2012. This is valid for June 2012 only.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Government and is aware of the normal or deficit monsoon rainfall forecast for June 2012.


Dr. Pradhan Parth Sarthi is climate change expert in the Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of Bihar and also Faculty and Academic Coordinator in the Centre for Environmental Sciences, Central University of Bihar (Founded by the GoI under Central Universities Act, 2009), Patna.

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